5019 Fairhaven Ln

Vineyards, FL 34109

$589,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,640/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$657
• HOA: −$477
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,184
• Net cashflow: $233/mo
• Annual: $2,798/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $564k (4.2% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $564k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 85% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+27 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $589k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.