3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,906 sqft ·
Built 1993
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,208/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$12
Tax + insurance
−$430
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$464
Net cashflow
$1,302/mo
Annual
$15,619/yr
Cap rate
907.91%
Cash-on-cash
3220.05%
DSCR
144.27
1% rule
95.98%
Cash to close
$644
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $69 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Glen Loch El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 535 students, 48% FRL); Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); The Woodlands H S (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #53 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 4,361 students, 12% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 57% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conroe ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $644 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 907.9% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F21Q4M8RWTNNTG
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29