45921 Ranch Rd

Johnson, OK 74804

$180,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $89/mo
• Annual: $1,064/yr
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (17.4% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#451 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: North Rock Creek Es (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #667 of 845 statewide, top 82%, 467 students, 0% FRL); North Rock Creek Hs (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 454 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.