45921 Ranch Rd · Johnson, OK 74804

$180,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1999 2.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this peaceful country retreat offering a warm cabin-style feel on 2.36 acres with mature trees, open yard space, and a private gated entrance. This inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features a large covered patio entrance and a spacious covered deck, perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or evening sunsets. Located in an area known for great schools, this property combines comfort, privacy, and functionality. The land includes a shop, storage shed, well, septic system, and propane tank, providing self-sufficient rural living with lower utility costs. There is ample room for equipment, hobbies, gardening, or small livestock. Additional property highlights may include: • Gravel/pr

Key facts

• Shop
• Well
• Storage shed

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED ENTRANCE
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS COVERED DECK
• SHOP
• STORAGE SHED
• WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is existing (not new construction); Homestead not indicated
• Financial info: Loan qualification allowed; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Manual geocode source
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level; North-facing; Residential property
• Construction: Frame / manufactured / mobile construction; Composition roof; Conventional foundation; Roof replaced or updated in 2014
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered porch; Outbuildings; Rain gutters; Storage; Workshop; Interior lot; Rural setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Eating area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Built-in storage; Ceiling fan; Garden tub; Separate shower; Eating space; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#451 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: North Rock Creek Es (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #667 of 845 statewide, top 82%, 467 students, 0% FRL); North Rock Creek Hs (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 454 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,713 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,356
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,325
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74804

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,375

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $140	+0% $89	+5% $38	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $30	+0% $89	+5% $147	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $134	base $89	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $180,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 694-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $180,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$813/yr (+$68/mo · 100.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$489
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Johnson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #21456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pottawatomie County · 45,194 people
• Metro: Shawnee, OK
• Population (ZIP): 23,227
• Household income: $67,631
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 442.0

Population outlook (Pottawatomie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,622 people
• By 2030: 78,816 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 82,766 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 86,031 · +12.3%
• By 2075: 93,316 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 95,820 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 11% Native American 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pottawatomie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.2% · R 72.7% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.1pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.01%
• Current HPI: 247.115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.49%
• Metro: Shawnee, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $180,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $807 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.