8801 Sorrel

Greenfield, CA 93307

$374,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,441 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-251/mo
• Annual: $-3,007/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Golden Valley High (reading 77%, 2,533 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $375k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,676/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 3246% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?