8801 Sorrel · Greenfield, CA 93307

$374,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,441 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1979 0.49 ac lot $154/sqft · 14% below area Est $435k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity! This spacious home features a generous floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a large living room, and kitchenall situated on a large lot. A detached unit on the property has fire damage, offering additional potential for renovation or redevelopment. Ready for you to make it your own!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Additional potential
• Detached unit

Tags

• DETACHED UNIT
• LARGE LOT
• ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Golden Valley High (reading 77%, 2,533 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,676/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 3246% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $375k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,602 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,720
• List price: $374,900
• Delta: -13.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8805 Clydesdale St	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,705 (+11%)	24mo	$535,000	$198	53
9201 Millfort St	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,362 (-3%)	22mo	$495,000	$210	49
1124 Stub Oak Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,250 (-8%)	21mo	$469,500	$209	38
900 charterten Ave	0.53mi	4/2.8	2,129 (-13%)	20mo	$440,000	$207	36
2609 Tara Leigh Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,107 (-14%)	23mo	$435,000	$206	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-69,315
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-48,801
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,909/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,993

Max offer price $330,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-144	+0% $-251	+5% $-357	+10% $-463
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-356	+0% $-251	+5% $-145	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-155	base $-251	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2402 Lebow Ct Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	45d	1	0.55mi
9118 Davedaly Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	4d	1	0.56mi
8211 Slider Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,550	$1.21	4d	1	0.57mi
2401 Donnalynn St Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	2048	$3,900	$1.90	4d	1	0.61mi
8602 Vincenso Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,550	$1.59	4d	1	0.68mi
265 Hudson Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1766	$2,900	$1.64	4d	1	0.76mi
2717 Mercedes Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,600	$1.37	21d	1	0.81mi
3106 Stone Meadows Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,700	$1.21	4d	1	0.98mi
8203 Libby Ct Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1715	$2,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.09mi
301 Alysheba Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.5	1864	$2,650	$1.42	12d	1	1.13mi
2922 Paradise Point Pl Bakersfield, CA	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,650	$1.27	4d	1	1.14mi
7210 Olen Arnold Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	3.0	2249	$2,500	$1.11	45d	1	1.28mi
6513 Pine View Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,950	$1.22	4d	1	1.31mi
8501 Tamworth St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,795	$1.56	16d	1	1.31mi
415 Welch Ave Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1998	$2,400	$1.20	4d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $374,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $379,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $379,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Great opportunity! This spacious home features a generous floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a large living room, and kitchenall situated on a large lot. A detached unit on the property has fire damage, offering additional potential for renovation or redevelopment. Ready for you to make it your own!

18. 2026-05-08
    price $379,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great opportunity! This spacious home features a generous floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a large living room, and kitchen—all situated on a large lot. A detached unit on the property has fire damage, offering additional potential for renovation or redevelopment. Ready for you to make it your own!

19. 2026-04-30
    price $389,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great opportunity! This spacious home features a generous floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a large living room, and kitchen—all situated on a large lot. A detached unit on the property has fire damage, offering additional potential for renovation or redevelopment. Ready for you to make it your own!

20. 2026-04-09
    listed $399,000 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great opportunity! This spacious home features a generous floor plan with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a large living room, and kitchen—all situated on a large lot. A detached unit on the property has fire damage, offering additional potential for renovation or redevelopment. Ready for you to make it your own!

21. 1995-11-10
    soldstatus $122,000
22. 1980-06-30
    soldstatus $86,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,909 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,909 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$2,909
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$9,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Greenfield

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #8416

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+336.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $379,000 GEMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $379,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $389,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 1995-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1980-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $86,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,909 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.