9165 Michael Cir #1002

Lely Resort, FL 34113

$419,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$1,125
• HOA: −$541
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$936
• Net cashflow: $-344/mo
• Annual: $-4,124/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $419k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (11.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $419k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $369k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,455/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.