55 Shorts Dr

Neoga, IL 62447

$139,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-237/mo
• Annual: $-2,844/yr
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (39.9% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#282 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Neoga CUSD 3 (rural): math 15% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #442 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Neoga Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,056 statewide, top 71%, 223 students, 0% FRL); Neoga Jr/Sr High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 278 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.
• Cumberland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?