55 Shorts Dr · Neoga, IL 62447

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1984 5,663 sqft lot $182/sqft · 42% below area Est $240k · 42% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a peaceful cove, this charming lakefront cabin offers the perfect retreat for relaxation and recreation. Featuring 2 cozy bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home includes a nicely updated kitchen ideal for lakeside meals and entertaining. Step outside onto the large deck — perfect for morning coffee, sunsets, or hosting friends after a day on the lake. With a furnace and A/C both just 7 years old, and the Roof 13 years old, you’ll enjoy year-round comfort and peace of mind. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, vacation rental opportunity, or your own private slice of waterfront paradise, this inviting cabin checks all the boxes. * Deck is just 10 years old. Power washed & Stained in 2025.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Lakefront cabin
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• LAKEFRONT CABIN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• WATERFRONT PARADISE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#282 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Neoga CUSD 3 (rural): math 15% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #442 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Neoga Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,056 statewide, top 71%, 223 students, 0% FRL); Neoga Jr/Sr High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 278 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Cumberland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $140k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $84,147 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,334
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -41.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $25,732
• Equity at exit: $88,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $87,328
• Equity at exit: $160,801

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62447

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,141

Max offer price $98,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-197	+0% $-237	+5% $-277	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-270	+0% $-237	+5% $-204	+10% $-171
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-201	base $-237	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $139,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   price $139,900 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful cove, this charming lakefront cabin offers the perfect retreat for relaxation and recreation. Featuring 2 cozy bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home includes a nicely updated kitchen ideal for lakeside meals and entertaining. Step outside onto the large deck — perfect for morning coffee, sunsets, or hosting friends after a day on the lake. With a furnace and A/C both just 7 years old, and the Roof 13 years old, you’ll enjoy year-round comfort and peace of mind. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, vacation rental opportunity, or your own private slice of waterfront paradise, this inviting cabin checks all the boxes. * Deck is just 10 years old. Power washed & Stained in 2025.

8. 2026-04-20
   price $149,900 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful cove, this charming lakefront cabin offers the perfect retreat for relaxation and recreation. Featuring 2 cozy bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home includes a nicely updated kitchen ideal for lakeside meals and entertaining. Step outside onto the large deck — perfect for morning coffee, sunsets, or hosting friends after a day on the lake. With a furnace and A/C both just 7 years old, and the Roof 13 years old, you’ll enjoy year-round comfort and peace of mind. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, vacation rental opportunity, or your own private slice of waterfront paradise, this inviting cabin checks all the boxes. * Deck is just 10 years old. Power washed & Stained in 2025.

9. 2026-03-30
   price $159,900 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Tucked away in a peaceful cove, this charming lakefront cabin offers the perfect retreat for relaxation and recreation. Featuring 2 cozy bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home includes a nicely updated kitchen ideal for lakeside meals and entertaining. Step outside onto the large deck — perfect for morning coffee, sunsets, or hosting friends after a day on the lake. With a furnace and A/C both just 7 years old, and the Roof 13 years old, you’ll enjoy year-round comfort and peace of mind. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, vacation rental opportunity, or your own private slice of waterfront paradise, this inviting cabin checks all the boxes. * Deck is just 10 years old. Power washed & Stained in 2025.

10. 2026-02-11
    listed $164,900 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Tucked away in a peaceful cove, this charming lakefront cabin offers the perfect retreat for relaxation and recreation. Featuring 2 cozy bedrooms and 1 full bath, the home includes a nicely updated kitchen ideal for lakeside meals and entertaining. Step outside onto the large deck — perfect for morning coffee, sunsets, or hosting friends after a day on the lake. With a furnace and A/C both just 7 years old, and the Roof 13 years old, you’ll enjoy year-round comfort and peace of mind. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, vacation rental opportunity, or your own private slice of waterfront paradise, this inviting cabin checks all the boxes. * Deck is just 10 years old. Power washed & Stained in 2025.

11. 2025-12-04
    price $169,500
12. 2025-11-03
    price $179,900
13. 2025-10-23
    listed $184,900 Active
14. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $70,000
15. 2015-06-29
    soldstatus $41,000
16. 2015-05-28
    historical
17. 2014-11-12
    historical
18. 2014-06-27
    historical
19. 2006-09-15
    soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,247 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$929/yr (+$77/mo · 70.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$808
• − Management: −$808
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$5,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neoga CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1727840
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,396
• Composite: 16.71/100
• National rank: #9166
• State rank: #442 of 620 in IL

Livability — Neoga

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #5432

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,195
• Population (ZIP): 3,195

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,370 people
• By 2030: 9,984 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 9,164 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 8,306 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 6,320 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 4,722 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.4% · R 80.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Current HPI: 171.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+143.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $139,900 CIBR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $149,900 CIBR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $159,900 CIBR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $164,900 CIBR
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $169,500 CIBR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $179,900 CIBR
• 2025-10-23 Listed $184,900 CIBR
• 2016-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-27 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,318 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.