408 Mesquite Dr

Rio Vista, TX 76093

$210,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,793/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$603
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,456/yr
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#524 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Rio Vista ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #588 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.