408 Mesquite Dr · Rio Vista, TX 76093

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 2006 9,821 sqft lot $187/sqft · at area comps Est $220k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming abode offers the perfect blend of small-town living and modern convenience in the highly desired Rio Vista school district! This home includes a functional floor plan, great condition, and a large backyard. As you step inside, you'll immediately feel a sense of warmth and comfort. The well cared for 3-2 provide ample space for those who want to relax and unwind. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• 9,821 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#524 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Rio Vista ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #588 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,129 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,289
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -4.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Mesquite Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,126 (0%)	0mo	$210,000	$187	100
1221 County Road 1107	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+11%)	6mo	$319,000	$255	46
310 N 1st St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-4%)	13mo	$124,900	$115	44
411 Lewis St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-6%)	20mo	$219,999	$208	39
402 N Cleburne Whitney Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+13%)	19mo	$325,000	$256	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $12,679
• Equity at exit: $100,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $64,403
• Equity at exit: $159,349

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76093

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,190/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $159,129

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Mesquite Dr Rio Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,750	$1.43	4d	1	0.15mi
500 N Cleburne Whitney Rd Rio Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1195	$2,000	$1.67	2d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $210,000 Pending 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $210,000 Active Option Contract 132 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $210,000 Active Option Contract 131 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Option Contract 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   This charming abode offers the perfect blend of small-town living and modern convenience in the highly desired Rio Vista school district! This home includes a functional floor plan, great condition, and a large backyard. As you step inside, you'll immediately feel a sense of warmth and comfort. The well cared for 3-2 provide ample space for those who want to relax and unwind. Schedule a showing today!

5. 2026-05-07
   price $210,000 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   This charming abode offers the perfect blend of small-town living and modern convenience in the highly desired Rio Vista school district! This home includes a functional floor plan, great condition, and a large backyard. As you step inside, you'll immediately feel a sense of warmth and comfort. The well cared for 3-2 provide ample space for those who want to relax and unwind. Schedule a showing today!

6. 2026-04-10
   price $220,000 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   This charming abode offers the perfect blend of small-town living and modern convenience in the highly desired Rio Vista school district! This home includes a functional floor plan, great condition, and a large backyard. As you step inside, you'll immediately feel a sense of warmth and comfort. The well cared for 3-2 provide ample space for those who want to relax and unwind. Schedule a showing today!

7. 2026-02-20
   price $225,000 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   This charming abode offers the perfect blend of small-town living and modern convenience in the highly desired Rio Vista school district! This home includes a functional floor plan, great condition, and a large backyard. As you step inside, you'll immediately feel a sense of warmth and comfort. The well cared for 3-2 provide ample space for those who want to relax and unwind. Schedule a showing today!

8. 2026-01-20
   listed $230,000 Active 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   This charming abode offers the perfect blend of small-town living and modern convenience in the highly desired Rio Vista school district! This home includes a functional floor plan, great condition, and a large backyard. As you step inside, you'll immediately feel a sense of warmth and comfort. The well cared for 3-2 provide ample space for those who want to relax and unwind. Schedule a showing today!

9. 2025-12-10
   historical
10. 2025-10-31
    price $233,000
11. 2025-10-29
    status Active
12. 2025-10-27
    status Pending
13. 2025-10-25
    historical Active Option Contract
14. 2025-09-05
    price $235,000
15. 2025-07-16
    listed $240,000 Active
16. 2025-06-12
    soldstatus
17. 2024-01-12
    soldstatus Closed
18. 2024-01-12
    soldstatus
19. 2023-12-24
    historical Active Option Contract
20. 2023-12-18
    listed $245,000 Active
21. 2022-12-21
    historical
22. 2022-12-14
    historical Active Option Contract
23. 2022-12-08
    price $233,750
24. 2022-12-02
    price $234,500
25. 2022-10-19
    listed $235,000 Active
26. 2017-01-18
    soldstatus
27. 2014-03-06
    soldstatus
28. 2014-03-04
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2014-02-06
    status Pending
30. 2014-01-30
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2014-01-17
    listed $92,500 Active
32. 2013-12-12
    historical
33. 2013-08-13
    price $89,900
34. 2013-07-20
    price $94,900
35. 2013-05-31
    price $96,900
36. 2013-04-22
    listed $99,000 Active
37. 2013-03-22
    historical
38. 2013-03-22
    status Active
39. 2013-03-22
    historical
40. 2012-09-22
    listed $99,000 Active
41. 2006-07-21
    soldstatus
42. 2006-07-20
    soldstatus
43. 2006-07-10
    historical
44. 2006-04-20
    listed $81,500
45. 2006-02-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,190 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$6,190
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$7,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,689
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837200
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,983
• Composite: 26.88/100
• National rank: #7099
• State rank: #588 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rio Vista

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #10285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Vista, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,193

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Current HPI: 233.603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+157.7% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $233,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-12-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-12-18 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-12-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-12-08 Price Changed $233,750 NTREIS
• 2022-12-02 Price Changed $234,500 NTREIS
• 2022-10-19 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2017-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-02-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-01-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2014-01-17 Listed $92,500 NTREIS
• 2013-12-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-08-13 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2013-07-20 Price Changed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2013-05-31 Price Changed $96,900 NTREIS
• 2013-04-22 Listed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2013-03-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2013-03-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2013-03-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-09-22 Listed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2006-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-07-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-04-20 Listed $81,500 NTREIS
• 2006-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,190 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.