4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,504 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,201/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$433
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$462
Net cashflow
$-57/mo
Annual
$-688/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.95%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$72,772
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-688/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (3.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (15.3% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $220k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F3FM19217HBP2V
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29