1012 21st St NW

Albuquerque, NM 87104

$245,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1936 · Other · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,616/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-187/mo
• Annual: $-2,248/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (34.0% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#13 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Coronado Elementary (308 students, 30% FRL); Washington Middle (275 students, 100% FRL); Albuquerque High (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #22 of 110 statewide, top 22%, 1,714 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15212% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $245k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Albuquerque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?