1012 21st St NW · Albuquerque, NM 87104

$245,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Other public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1936 3,001 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location! Welcome to 1012 21st Street--an enchanting 2-bedroom, 1-bath adobe casita nestled in the heart of the desirable Sawmill District. This warm and inviting home or potential investment opportunity, offers the perfect blend of classic New Mexico charm and exciting potential to make it your own. Step inside to find much of the home's original character thoughtfully preserved, with room to elevate and personalize--ideal for a first-time homeowner, artist at heart, or anyone seeking a true Southwest retreat. The kitchen and bathroom feature timeless Saltillo tile, adding authentic texture and warmth, while outside you'll love the beautifully paved patio--perfect for morning coffee, evening entertaining, or relaxing under the New Mexico sky.

Key facts

• Saltillo tile
• Sawmill district
• Paved patio

Tags

• SAWMILL DISTRICT
• ORIGINAL CHARACTER
• SALTILLO TILE
• PAVED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Albuquerque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#13 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Coronado Elementary (308 students, 30% FRL); Washington Middle (275 students, 100% FRL); Albuquerque High (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #22 of 110 statewide, top 22%, 1,714 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15212% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $245k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,605 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,208
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,590
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87104

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $925/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $211,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-118	+0% $-187	+5% $-257	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-251	+0% $-187	+5% $-123	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-125	base $-187	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
919 22nd St NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	25d	1	0.10mi
1812 Indian School Rd NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,354	$1.74	4d	9	0.44mi
1204 Sawmill Rd NW Unit 2-FURNISHED Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	550	$1,700	$3.09	45d	1	0.59mi
200 Rio Grande Blvd SW Unit 209 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	5d	1	0.70mi
1703 Lomas Blvd NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	25d	1	0.74mi
2307 New York Ave SW Unit 2311-B Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	45d	1	0.76mi
816 13th St NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	16d	1	0.77mi
1229 Menaul Blvd NW Apt C Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	816	$1,125	$1.38	25d	1	0.79mi
2830 Floral Rd NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	981	$1,800	$1.83	16d	1	0.80mi
522 14th St NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.82mi
2211 Rio Grande Blvd NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,175	$2.64	5d	5	0.88mi
2211 Rio Grande Blvd NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,450	$2.93	45d	9	0.88mi
1716 Central Ave SW Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	497	$1,280	$2.58	5d	2	0.93mi
1716 Central Ave SW Unit 107 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	602	$1,275	$2.12	25d	1	0.93mi
1503 Central Ave NW Unit 108D Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	950	$1,990	$2.09	5d	1	0.98mi
901 Slate Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	25d	1	1.01mi
819 8th St NW Unit A Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	45d	1	1.08mi
208 13th St NW Unit B Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	1070	$1,350	$1.26	45d	1	1.10mi
323 11th St NW Apt 1 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	525	$995	$1.90	45d	1	1.14mi
505 Marble Ave NW Apt A Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	45d	1	1.18mi
505 Marble Ave NW Unit Apt Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	45d	1	1.18mi
505 Marble Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	45d	1	1.19mi
505 Marble Ave NW Unit A-Furnished Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	600	$2,300	$3.83	45d	1	1.19mi
505 Marble Ave NW Unit B-F Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	25d	1	1.19mi
505 Marble Ave NW Unit 1-F Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	25d	1	1.19mi
505 Marble Ave NW Unit A-F Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	600	$1,900	$3.17	25d	1	1.19mi
706 Fruit Ave NW Apt A Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.5	925	$1,399	$1.51	45d	1	1.20mi
720 Roma Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	25d	1	1.25mi
950 4th St NW Apt 209 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	651	$1,340	$2.06	5d	1	1.26mi
950 4th St NW Unit 305 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	651	$1,340	$2.06	45d	1	1.26mi
950 4th St NW Unit 203 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	651	$1,700	$2.61	45d	1	1.26mi
950 4th St NW Unit 310 Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,560	$1.54	45d	1	1.26mi
500 Phoenix Ave NW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	16d	1	1.30mi
715 Copper Ave NW Unit 719 Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	45d	1	1.40mi
1221 Silver Ave SW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0	587	$950	$1.62	45d	1	1.40mi
2818 4th St NW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,795	$2.04	20d	7	1.40mi
401 12th St SW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	16d	1	1.45mi
417 12th St SW Albuquerque, NM	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $245,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-05-09
   price $245,000 773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (773 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! Welcome to 1012 21st Street--an enchanting 2-bedroom, 1-bath adobe casita nestled in the heart of the desirable Sawmill District. This warm and inviting home or potential investment opportunity, offers the perfect blend of classic New Mexico charm and exciting potential to make it your own. Step inside to find much of the home's original character thoughtfully preserved, with room to elevate and personalize--ideal for a first-time homeowner, artist at heart, or anyone seeking a true Southwest retreat. The kitchen and bathroom feature timeless Saltillo tile, adding authentic texture and warmth, while outside you'll love the beautifully paved patio--perfect for morning coffee, evening entertaining, or relaxing under the New Mexico sky.

3. 2026-04-14
   price $265,000 773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (773 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! Welcome to 1012 21st Street--an enchanting 2-bedroom, 1-bath adobe casita nestled in the heart of the desirable Sawmill District. This warm and inviting home or potential investment opportunity, offers the perfect blend of classic New Mexico charm and exciting potential to make it your own. Step inside to find much of the home's original character thoughtfully preserved, with room to elevate and personalize--ideal for a first-time homeowner, artist at heart, or anyone seeking a true Southwest retreat. The kitchen and bathroom feature timeless Saltillo tile, adding authentic texture and warmth, while outside you'll love the beautifully paved patio--perfect for morning coffee, evening entertaining, or relaxing under the New Mexico sky.

4. 2026-04-06
   historical $1,600
5. 2026-04-01
   listed $1,600
6. 2026-03-16
   listed $275,000 Active 773-char remark

   Show marketing remark (773 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! Welcome to 1012 21st Street--an enchanting 2-bedroom, 1-bath adobe casita nestled in the heart of the desirable Sawmill District. This warm and inviting home or potential investment opportunity, offers the perfect blend of classic New Mexico charm and exciting potential to make it your own. Step inside to find much of the home's original character thoughtfully preserved, with room to elevate and personalize--ideal for a first-time homeowner, artist at heart, or anyone seeking a true Southwest retreat. The kitchen and bathroom feature timeless Saltillo tile, adding authentic texture and warmth, while outside you'll love the beautifully paved patio--perfect for morning coffee, evening entertaining, or relaxing under the New Mexico sky.

7. 2026-03-05
   historical $1,600
8. 2026-01-14
   listed $1,600
9. 2025-09-25
   historical $1,350
10. 2025-09-18
    listed $1,350
11. 2022-04-11
    price $1,200
12. 1998-05-28
    soldstatus $72,503

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $925 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,035/yr (+$86/mo · 111.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$925
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $-637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — Albuquerque

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #6219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Albuquerque, NM
• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 647,165
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 12,853
• Household income: $75,436
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 589.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 35% Two or more races 31% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.54%
• Current HPI: 242.948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.78%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+237.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $245,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $265,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-06 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-01 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-16 Listed $275,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-05 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-25 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-18 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2022-04-11 Price Changed $1,200 RENT.
• 1998-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $72,503 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $925 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.