485 Estes Rd

Clay City, KY 40312

$75,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $505/mo
• Annual: $6,061/yr
• Cap rate: 14.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.86%
• DSCR: 2.28
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $505 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#428 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Powell County (rural): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #156 of 165 in KY (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clay City Elementary School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 442 students, 68% FRL); Powell County Middle School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 462 students, 68% FRL); Powell County Academy (11 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Powell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Powell County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.4% in Clay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.