42 Raven Turn

Bear, DE 19702

$189,900B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $667/mo
• Annual: $8,002/yr
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $667 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#8 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Christina School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #18 of 26 in DE (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,367 units permitted in New Castle County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Castle County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 126% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $190k implies a 370% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.7% in Bear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.