184 Mangrove Shade Cir

Apollo Beach, FL 33572

$266,500D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,398
• Tax + insurance: −$994
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-624/mo
• Annual: $-7,492/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $74,620

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-624 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Doby Elementary School (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 550 students, 54% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 866 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Apollo Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?