421 Cottonwood

Mount Vernon, OR 97865

$179,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,737/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (37.5% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#251 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• John Day SD 3 (rural): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #16 of 58 in OR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Humbolt Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #132 of 412 statewide, top 34%, 242 students, 49% FRL); Grant Union Junior/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #85 of 143 statewide, top 61%, 216 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grant County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?