421 Cottonwood · Mount Vernon, OR 97865

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 1951 8,712 sqft lot $149/sqft · 17% below area Est $215k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Two-Story Home with Endless PotentialThis well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your personal touch. Preserve its original charm while adding your own updates to build equity and make it truly yours.Recent improvements include a Roofmax treatment applied in September 2025, backed by a 5-year warranty for peace of mind.Enjoy year-round comfort with three heat sources — a cozy woodstove, efficient oil monitor heater, and convenient wall heaters.The property features a large fenced yard with mature trees, offering privacy, shade, and plenty of space for outdoor living or gardening.A wonderful opportunity to create your dream home while investing in lasting value.

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Roofmax treatment
• Mature trees

Tags

• LARGE FENCED YARD
• MATURE TREES
• THREE HEAT SOURCES
• ROOFMAX TREATMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#251 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• John Day SD 3 (rural): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #16 of 58 in OR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Humbolt Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #132 of 412 statewide, top 34%, 242 students, 49% FRL); Grant Union Junior/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #85 of 143 statewide, top 61%, 216 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,868 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,895
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -16.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 Cottonwood	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	13mo	$214,000	$198	65
289 Ingle St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+15%)	13mo	$215,000	$156	56
800 Ingle St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-10%)	20mo	$235,000	$217	49
390 Highlan Ter	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+14%)	16mo	$229,500	$168	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,570
• Equity at exit: $78,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $41,891
• Equity at exit: $120,581

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97865

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $138,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-127	-5% $-177	+0% $-228	+5% $-279	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-272	+0% $-228	+5% $-184	+10% $-140
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-183	base $-228	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $179,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $185,000 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (698 chars)

    Charming Two-Story Home with Endless Potential This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your personal touch. Preserve its original charm while adding your own updates to build equity and make it truly yours. Recent improvements include a Roofmax treatment applied in September 2025, backed by a 5-year warranty for peace of mind. Enjoy year-round comfort with three heat sources -- a cozy woodstove, efficient oil monitor heater, and convenient wall heaters. The property features a large fenced yard with mature trees, offering privacy, shade, and plenty of space for outdoor living or gardening. A wonderful opportunity to create your dream home while investing in lasting value.

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $185,000 Active 698-char remark

    Show marketing remark (698 chars)

    Charming Two-Story Home with Endless Potential This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your personal touch. Preserve its original charm while adding your own updates to build equity and make it truly yours. Recent improvements include a Roofmax treatment applied in September 2025, backed by a 5-year warranty for peace of mind. Enjoy year-round comfort with three heat sources -- a cozy woodstove, efficient oil monitor heater, and convenient wall heaters. The property features a large fenced yard with mature trees, offering privacy, shade, and plenty of space for outdoor living or gardening. A wonderful opportunity to create your dream home while investing in lasting value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 46.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$6,035
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: John Day SD 3
• NCES district ID: 4106780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,007
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #5366
• State rank: #16 of 58 in OR

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #17224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, OR
• Population (ZIP): 968

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,485 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 5,222 · -19.5%
• By 2050: 4,581 · -29.4%
• By 2075: 3,578 · -44.8%
• By 2100: 2,756 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Serbian 11% Lithuanian 6%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 18.4% · R 78.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -45.5pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+45.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 106.8948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $185,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-20 Listed $185,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,183 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.