9301 Midland Turn

Marlton, MD 20772

$464,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax + insurance: −$698
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-590/mo
• Annual: $-7,085/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $130,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-590 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (30.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $322k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#224 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frederick Douglass High (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #157 of 222 statewide, top 71%, 1,159 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Prince George'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $465k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.