429 Orr St

Pacific, MO 63069

$138,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,419/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $286/mo
• Annual: $3,428/yr
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.82%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $38,892

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#268 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meramec Valley R-III (town): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #148 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Truman Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 196 students, 40% FRL); Pacific High (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #407 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 951 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $139k implies a 1289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Pacific — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.