429 Orr St · Pacific, MO 63069

$138,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1984 9,016 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*** CHECK THIS ONE OUT FOR ONLY $65,000! *** 3 BR 2 Bath with updated baths, laminate wood flooring & ceramic tile throughout, nice covered front patio, really large fenced in yard with 25 x 14 utility shed, main floor laundry leads to small garden area room. Nicely maintained but selling "AS IS" *** This one is priced to sell so call for your viewing now! *** Buyer to take care of getting City Occupancy Inspection.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• 9,016 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CRAWL SPACE FOUNDATION
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• DETACHED TWO-CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-space carport
• Utilities: Electric service: Ameren; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Level lot (exterior lot feature)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Pacific — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#268 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meramec Valley R-III (town): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #148 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Truman Elem. (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 196 students, 40% FRL); Pacific High (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #407 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 951 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $139k implies a 1289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $138,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.82%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,366
• Equity at exit: $20,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $19,405
• Equity at exit: $12,010

Cash invested: $38,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63069

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $586/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,057

Max offer price $138,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,725
• Closing costs: $4,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1515 W Pacific St Unit 202 Pacific, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	17d	1	0.48mi
1016 Westlake Village Dr Pacific, MO	3.0	3.0	1405	$2,275	$1.62	1d	1	1.02mi
59 Cedar Ridge Dr Pacific, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	4d	1	1.19mi
2630 Lisa Ln Apt 113 Pacific, MO	2.0	1.0	825	$1,250	$1.52	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 613-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $138,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $586 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,347 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$761/yr (+$63/mo · 130.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,781
• − Property taxes: −$586
• − Insurance: −$694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$4,041
• Taxable income: $1,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $3,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meramec Valley R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923460
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,982
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5395
• State rank: #148 of 324 in MO

Livability — Pacific

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #12622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific, MO
• Population (ZIP): 14,760

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,600 people
• By 2030: 103,298 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 100,607 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 94,280 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 77,103 · -25.6%
• By 2100: 54,405 · -47.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.5% · R 72.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.04%
• Current HPI: 246.9938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+1289.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $138,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-09 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-30 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-08 Listed $65,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1982-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $586 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.