4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,665 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,843/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,767
Tax + insurance
−$562
HOA
−$100
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$597
Net cashflow
$-183/mo
Annual
$-2,199/yr
Cap rate
5.64%
Cash-on-cash
-2.33%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$94,360
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $337k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (7.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (15.6% below list).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $284k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F5GAJS1EZ0T638
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29