14442 Rixeyville Rd

Culpeper, VA 22701

$289,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-168/mo
• Annual: $-2,020/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (31.6% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in VA, #3,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: commute F.
• Culpeper County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #69 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Park Elementary (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #892 of 1,108 statewide, top 81%, 695 students, 77% FRL); Culpeper Middle (math 50% / reading 64%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 1,066 students, 50% FRL); Culpeper County High (math 51% / reading 78%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 1,223 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 37% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 425 units permitted in Culpeper County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Culpeper County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 21 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $290k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.5% in Culpeper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.