14442 Rixeyville Rd · Culpeper, VA 22701

$289,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1957 7,841 sqft lot $280/sqft · 14% below area Est $337k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath all-brick rambler offering convenient one-level living in a desirable Culpeper location. Situated on a . 18-acre lot, this well-maintained home features a functional layout, a welcoming back porch, and a rear laundry entrance for added convenience. The kitchen was updated in 2017 with modern cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and granite countertops. A custom peninsula with quartz countertops, added in 2022, provides additional prep space and storage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional updates include newer windows. Ideally located with easy access to Route 229, this home is just minutes from local schools, shopping, dining, and downtown Culpeper amenities. Property is being sold as-is and presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to personalize or investors seeking value. Seller is offering a $5,000 credit. I

Key facts

• Modern cabinetry
• Back porch
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BACK PORCH
• REAR LAUNDRY ENTRANCE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MODERN CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.5% in Culpeper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in VA, #3,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: commute F.
• Culpeper County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #69 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Park Elementary (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #892 of 1,108 statewide, top 81%, 695 students, 77% FRL); Culpeper Middle (math 50% / reading 64%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 1,066 students, 50% FRL); Culpeper County High (math 51% / reading 78%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 1,223 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 37% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 425 units permitted in Culpeper County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Culpeper County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 21 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $290k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,163 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,968
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -13.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14458 Rixeyville Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	960 (-7%)	9mo	$265,000	$276	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,641
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-92,219
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22701

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,113/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,195

Max offer price $260,161

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-86	+0% $-168	+5% $-250	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-247	+0% $-168	+5% $-90	+10% $-12
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-95	base $-168	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
624 Highview Ct Culpeper, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $289,900 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 888-char remark

   Show marketing remark (888 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath all-brick rambler offering convenient one-level living in a desirable Culpeper location. Situated on a . 18-acre lot, this well-maintained home features a functional layout, a welcoming back porch, and a rear laundry entrance for added convenience. The kitchen was updated in 2017 with modern cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and granite countertops. A custom peninsula with quartz countertops, added in 2022, provides additional prep space and storage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional updates include newer windows. Ideally located with easy access to Route 229, this home is just minutes from local schools, shopping, dining, and downtown Culpeper amenities. Property is being sold as-is and presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to personalize or investors seeking value. Seller is offering a $5,000 credit. I

3. 2026-04-11
   listed $289,900 Active 888-char remark

   Show marketing remark (888 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath all-brick rambler offering convenient one-level living in a desirable Culpeper location. Situated on a . 18-acre lot, this well-maintained home features a functional layout, a welcoming back porch, and a rear laundry entrance for added convenience. The kitchen was updated in 2017 with modern cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and granite countertops. A custom peninsula with quartz countertops, added in 2022, provides additional prep space and storage—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional updates include newer windows. Ideally located with easy access to Route 229, this home is just minutes from local schools, shopping, dining, and downtown Culpeper amenities. Property is being sold as-is and presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to personalize or investors seeking value. Seller is offering a $5,000 credit. I

4. 2026-02-24
   historical
5. 2026-02-15
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-02-12
   price $289,900
7. 2026-01-17
   listed $294,900 Active
8. 2018-05-21
   soldstatus $142,700
9. 2018-05-11
   soldstatus $142,700 Sold
10. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $142,700 Closed
11. 2018-03-16
    status Pending
12. 2018-03-02
    listed Active Under Contract
13. 2018-02-28
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
14. 2018-02-26
    historical Contingent (Kick Out)
15. 2018-02-16
    historical
16. 2018-02-16
    listed $139,900 Active
17. 2018-02-16
    listed $139,900
18. 2018-02-16
    historical Withdrawn
19. 2018-02-05
    historical
20. 2018-02-05
    listed $144,900
21. 2018-02-05
    listed Active
22. 2018-02-05
    historical Withdrawn
23. 2018-01-15
    historical
24. 2018-01-15
    listed $149,900
25. 2018-01-15
    listed Active
26. 2018-01-15
    historical Withdrawn
27. 2018-01-02
    listed $154,900
28. 2018-01-02
    listed Active
29. 2017-12-29
    historical
30. 2017-12-06
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
31. 2017-12-06
    historical Withdrawn
32. 2017-11-29
    historical
33. 2017-11-29
    listed $154,900
34. 2017-11-29
    listed Active
35. 2017-11-29
    historical Withdrawn
36. 2017-11-15
    listed Active
37. 2017-11-15
    listed $159,900
38. 2017-11-15
    historical
39. 2017-11-15
    historical Withdrawn
40. 2017-11-07
    listed Active
41. 2017-11-07
    listed $164,900
42. 2017-11-07
    historical
43. 2017-11-07
    historical Withdrawn
44. 2017-10-31
    listed Active
45. 2017-10-31
    listed $169,900
46. 2017-10-31
    historical Withdrawn
47. 2017-10-23
    listed Active
48. 2017-10-20
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,113 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,264/yr (+$105/mo · 113.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,113
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$7,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Culpeper County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $66,051
• Composite: 49.24/100
• National rank: #2033
• State rank: #69 of 131 in VA

Livability — Culpeper

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3736

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Culpeper County · 38,512 people
• City population: 38,512
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 38,512
• Household income: $97,892
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 659.0

Population outlook (Culpeper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,299 people
• By 2030: 56,492 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 60,267 · +11.0%
• By 2050: 62,773 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 67,747 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 65,971 · +21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Culpeper

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 61.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 333.8018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+65.8% since first listed

47 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-15 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $294,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $142,700 Public Records
• 2018-05-11 Sold (MLS) $142,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-11 Sold (MLS) $142,700 MRIS
• 2018-03-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-02 Listed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-28 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-02-26 Contingent — MRIS
• 2018-02-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-02-16 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-16 Listed $139,900 MRIS
• 2018-02-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-02-05 Listed — MRIS
• 2018-02-05 Listed $144,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-01-15 Listed — MRIS
• 2018-01-15 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-02 Listed — MRIS
• 2018-01-02 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-06 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-12-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-11-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-11-29 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-11-29 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-15 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-11-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-11-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-15 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-07 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-11-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-11-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-07 Listed $164,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-31 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-10-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-10-31 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-23 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-10-20 Listed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,113 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.