1572 Old Nashville Dirt Rd

Shelbyville, TN 37160

$199,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $395/mo
• Annual: $4,746/yr
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (0.0% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• Bedford County (rural): math 24% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #97 of 139 in TN (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Community Elementary School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #400 of 952 statewide, top 43%, 663 students, 0% FRL); Harris Middle School (math 16% / reading 13%, grade F, #231 of 333 statewide, top 70%, 963 students, 0% FRL); Community High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 566 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 630 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $200k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.