1572 Old Nashville Dirt Rd · Shelbyville, TN 37160

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2001 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIVE AUCTION Saturday, June 27th at 11am. Public Preview at 10 am. ONLINE BIDDING AVAILABLE. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,512 square feet of comfortable living space with plenty of room both inside and out. Situated on a beautiful 1.01-acre lot, the property provides the perfect blend of privacy and open space, ideal for gardening, outdoor entertaining, pets, or simply enjoying the scenic Tennessee countryside. The functional floor plan features a spacious living area, generously sized bedrooms, and a primary suite with a private bath. TERMS: $10,000 non-refundable deposit down & sign an auction purchase agreement with all pertinent docs day of sale, balance is due in 30 days. 10% Buyer’s Premium added to bid to determine final sale price. TAXES: Prorated POSSESSION: With Deed. Property is being sold AS-IS. Traditional financing is accepted. THIS IS NOT A FORECLOSURE OR SHORT SALE. PRE AUCTION OFFERS ARE WELCOMED!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 2001

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• TENNESSEE COUNTRYSIDE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax noted (amount provided in source)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface; No covered parking listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured on land residential property; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space / no basement; Built existing (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom includes a suite
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, employment D.
• Bedford County (rural): math 24% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #97 of 139 in TN (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Community Elementary School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #400 of 952 statewide, top 43%, 663 students, 0% FRL); Harris Middle School (math 16% / reading 13%, grade F, #231 of 333 statewide, top 70%, 963 students, 0% FRL); Community High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 566 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 630 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bedford County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $200k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,295
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $25,710
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37160

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,498

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $452	+0% $395	+5% $339	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $238	-5% $317	+0% $395	+5% $474	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $446	base $395	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 582-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$796/yr (+$66/mo · 127.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $4,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County
• NCES district ID: 4700180
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,704
• Composite: 20.03/100
• National rank: #8658
• State rank: #97 of 139 in TN

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bedford County · 38,148 people
• City population: 38,148
• Metro: Shelbyville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 38,148
• Household income: $64,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,064 people
• By 2030: 52,954 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 56,534 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,482 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 65,597 · +28.5%
• By 2100: 68,030 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+52.8 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.18%
• Current HPI: 330.802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelbyville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+205.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $220,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.