823 Warren St

Hudson, NY 12534

$799,000D

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,622 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-3,040/mo
• Annual: $-36,484/yr
• Cap rate: 1.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.31%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (55.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (60.7% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (60.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $85k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#430 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery C Smith Elementary School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,409 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 723 students, 65% FRL); Hudson Junior High School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #573 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 384 students, 63% FRL); Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$137k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.3% in Hudson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $3,141/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.