434 Poplar Rd

Laurel Lake, NJ 08332

$105,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 664 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $362/mo
• Annual: $4,342/yr
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.77%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#521 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commercial Township School (math 5% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,303 statewide, top 84%, 470 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $105k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 7.5% in Laurel Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.