434 Poplar Rd · Laurel Lake, NJ 08332

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1960 10,001 sqft lot $158/sqft · 6% below area Est $111k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newlyrenovated, lovely sunroom, newly painted , papered interior, w/ w plus quarry tile in sunroom, well insulated , close to fishing , boating, etc.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (1 space); Total of 1 garage/parking space reported
• Utilities: Private septic system; Well water; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Ownership: Fee simple; Above-grade finished area reported by assessor
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 100; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heating type: Other; Heating fuel: Other; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area measured from assessor records

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 7.5% in Laurel Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#521 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Commercial Township School District (rural): math 5% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #449 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commercial Township School (math 5% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,303 statewide, top 84%, 470 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $105k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.77%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,494
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -5.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
432 Mistle Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	700 (+5%)	4mo	$129,900	$186	79
118 Canary Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0	660 (-1%)	2mo	$187,000	$283	68
317 Evergreen Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0	640 (-4%)	15mo	$155,000	$242	65
7808 David Pl	0.51mi	2/1.0	608 (-8%)	5mo	$45,000	$74	58
328 Jute Rd	0.36mi	2/1.0	753 (+13%)	7mo	$184,500	$245	55
1214 NE Lakeshore Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	716 (+8%)	13mo	$184,325	$257	42
1857 Lakeshore Dr	0.62mi	1/1.0 (-1)	736 (+11%)	8mo	$60,000	$82	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,526
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $27,578
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08332

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,804/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $392	+0% $362	+5% $332	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $302	+0% $362	+5% $421	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $389	base $362	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $105,000 423-char remark
18. 2026-05-09
    listed $110,000 Active 423-char remark
19. 2004-03-16
    soldstatus $66,950
20. 2004-03-12
    soldstatus $66,950 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Newlyrenovated, lovely sunroom, newly painted , papered interior, w/ w plus quarry tile in sunroom, well insulated , close to fishing , boating, etc.

21. 2003-12-29
    historical 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Newlyrenovated, lovely sunroom, newly painted , papered interior, w/ w plus quarry tile in sunroom, well insulated , close to fishing , boating, etc.

22. 2003-05-20
    listed $65,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    Newlyrenovated, lovely sunroom, newly painted , papered interior, w/ w plus quarry tile in sunroom, well insulated , close to fishing , boating, etc.

23. 1988-03-25
    soldstatus $12,000
24. 1977-09-07
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,804
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $3,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commercial Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403480
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,143
• Composite: 14.86/100
• National rank: #9378
• State rank: #449 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Laurel Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #22397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel Lake, NJ
• County: Cumberland County · 80,266 people
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,228
• Household income: $67,496
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.45%
• Current HPI: 274.8011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+775.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $66,950 Public Records
• 2004-03-12 Sold (MLS) $66,950 SJSRMLS
• 2003-12-29 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2003-05-20 Listed $65,000 SJSRMLS
• 1988-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1977-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,804 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.