24888 Fm-787

Saratoga, TX 77585

$115,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-651/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-651/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Hardin County CISD (rural): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #664 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Hardin El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 281 students, 77% FRL); West Hardin H S (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 270 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 41% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $115k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.