24888 Fm-787 · Saratoga, TX 77585

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2009 1.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home in Thicket, TX, features approximately 1,046 square feet of living space situated on +/- 1.04-acre lot. The interior includes modern updates such as vinyl plank flooring in the common areas and granite countertops with a mosaic tile backsplash in the kitchen. The exterior is finished with durable Hardi Board siding on a slab foundation. The property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 90 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (single level)
• Construction: Cement siding; Built in 2009; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot includes other features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom (first level) — 10 x 12; Primary bedroom (first level) — 10 x 14; Total of 2 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Tub/shower; Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-651/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Hardin County CISD (rural): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #664 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Hardin El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 281 students, 77% FRL); West Hardin H S (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 270 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 41% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $115k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,971 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $15,905
• Equity at exit: $57,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $54,976
• Equity at exit: $93,524

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77585

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,843/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,018

Max offer price $105,410

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-22	+0% $-54	+5% $-87	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-92	+0% $-54	+5% $-17	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-25	base $-54	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $95,000 Active
18. 2023-07-11
    soldstatus
19. 2023-01-18
    soldstatus $55,002
20. 2007-10-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,843
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$632
• After-tax cash flow: $-20/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Hardin County CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,126
• Composite: 24.16/100
• National rank: #7740
• State rank: #664 of 826 in TX

Livability — Saratoga

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,123

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 100.1062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+72.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $55,002 Public Records
• 2007-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,843 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.