501 N Birch St

Mill Spring, MO 63952

$100,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $108/mo
• Annual: $1,291/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#903 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Clearwater R-I (rural): math 33% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #255 of 324 in MO (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clearwater Elementary (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 414 students, 72% FRL); Clearwater High (math 34% / reading 57%, grade D-, #174 of 521 statewide, top 33%, 239 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.