501 N Birch St · Mill Spring, MO 63952

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

Built 1900 1.62 ac lot Est $100k · at est. ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home has 1180 SF of heated and cooled living space with another 485 SF under roof. There are two bedrooms, one bath, kitchen with walk-in pantry, dining room, living room, laundry room, sun room, and screened-in front porch. The vinyl siding and metal roof make the exterior virtually maintenance free. The carport provides covered parking and the workshop building offers plenty of space for projects and storage. This sits on 8 lots for a total of 1.62 acres, m/l which is very well maintained and has some beautiful, mature shade trees. Clearwater and Wappapello Lakes, Black and St. Francis Rivers, Sam A Baker State Park, Piedmont, MO and 1000's of acres of National Forests are all nearby

Key facts

• Workshop building
• Metal roof
• Carport

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• VINYL SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• CARPORT
• WORKSHOP BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#903 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Clearwater R-I (rural): math 33% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #255 of 324 in MO (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clearwater Elementary (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 414 students, 72% FRL); Clearwater High (math 34% / reading 57%, grade D-, #174 of 521 statewide, top 33%, 239 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,300
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 N Birch St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,180 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$85	99
103 E 5th St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-5%)	12mo	$15,000	$13	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $18,915
• Equity at exit: $44,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $57,767
• Equity at exit: $69,295

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63952

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $142	+0% $108	+5% $73	+10% $38
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $68	+0% $108	+5% $148	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $133	base $108	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   status Active
3. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-10
   price $100,000
5. 2025-08-26
   price $120,000
6. 2025-07-08
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2023-10-01
   historical
8. 2023-07-11
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clearwater R-I
• NCES district ID: 2909750
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $31,119
• Composite: 26.89/100
• National rank: #7095
• State rank: #255 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mill Spring

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #903
• US rank: #25589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mill Spring, MO
• Population (ZIP): 316

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,005 people
• By 2030: 12,767 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,319 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 11,828 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 10,806 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 9,610 · -26.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.4% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.6pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+70.5 2016: R+64.4 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-08 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-01 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Listed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid