245 Walden Ct

Montevallo, AL 35115

$185,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,067/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-340/mo
• Annual: $-4,079/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (42.3% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montevallo Elementary School (math 29% / reading 49%, grade F, #257 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 749 students, 77% FRL); Montevallo Middle School (math 5% / reading 43%, grade F, #168 of 257 statewide, top 66%, 369 students, 78% FRL); Montevallo High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 506 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Montevallo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.