245 Walden Ct · Montevallo, AL 35115

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1983 0.46 ac lot $143/sqft · 38% above area Est $201k · 8% under ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located close to the University of Montevallo, this 3 bedroom 2 bath backs up to the beautiful spring creek. Featuring laminate flooring throughout, and all new appliances

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• New appliances
• Built 1983

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (42.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Montevallo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#217 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montevallo Elementary School (math 29% / reading 49%, grade F, #257 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 749 students, 77% FRL); Montevallo Middle School (math 5% / reading 43%, grade F, #168 of 257 statewide, top 66%, 369 students, 78% FRL); Montevallo High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 506 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,675 (42.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,712
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -7.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Vine St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,376 (+6%)	3mo	$245,000	$178	79
6130 Highway 10	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-5%)	4mo	$260,000	$211	69
260 Vine St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-9%)	8mo	$195,000	$166	68
425 Samford St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-1%)	14mo	$73,000	$57	68
4050 Highway 25	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	12mo	$145,000	$116	58
191 Cambridge Park Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,183 (-9%)	12mo	$212,000	$179	56
232 Cambridge Park Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+6%)	16mo	$212,000	$153	54
143 Cambridge Park Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+7%)	15mo	$215,000	$154	53
172 Cambridge Park Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-13%)	9mo	$195,000	$172	52
450 Shelby St	0.20mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,123 (-14%)	16mo	$205,000	$183	48
155 Cambridge Park Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+14%)	9mo	$199,900	$135	48
125 Meadow Rd	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-6%)	7mo	$225,000	$184	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-51,669
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-73,043
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35115

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $124,954

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-288	+0% $-340	+5% $-392	+10% $-445
Rent	-10% $-424	-5% $-382	+0% $-340	+5% $-298	+10% $-256
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-293	base $-340	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Oxford Cir Montevallo, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	4d	1	0.35mi
430 Canterbury Rd Unit F Montevallo, AL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,130	$1.18	12d	1	0.48mi
1010 Nabors St Montevallo, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$1,065	$1.43	3d	1	0.57mi
138 Overland Rd Montevallo, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1175	$1,050	$0.89	3d	1	0.86mi
195 Salem Rd Montevallo, AL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,000	$1.07	3d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-02-12
    listed $185,000 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Conveniently located close to the University of Montevallo, this 3 bedroom 2 bath backs up to the beautiful spring creek. Featuring laminate flooring throughout, and all new appliances

18. 2025-06-04
    price $185,000
19. 2019-12-09
    soldstatus $340,000 Sold
20. 2019-10-29
    historical Contingent
21. 2019-06-07
    price $379,000
22. 2019-05-17
    listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$1,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,024
• − Management: −$1,024
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$7,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,810
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montevallo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #16530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montevallo, AL
• Population (ZIP): 16,911

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.55%
• Current HPI: 207.2205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-53.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $185,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $185,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-12-09 Sold (MLS) $340,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-10-29 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-06-07 Price Changed $379,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-05-17 Listed $399,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $827 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.