629 Cranberry Ln

Gananda, NY 14502

$299,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$841
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-520/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-520/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $292k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gananda Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #357 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $300k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.