629 Cranberry Ln · Gananda, NY 14502

$299,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 9,148 sqft lot Est $328k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath Colonial with all the major ticket items already done! New roof 2013, New furnace, AC and Hot Water Tank replaced in 2014! New laminate flooring throughout the first floor. Also new paint throughout! Large family room and eat in Kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to the large deck and fenced in yard. New stainless steel appliances included. Large finished dry basement! Driveway freshly sealed. Nothing left to do here but move in!

Key facts

• Newer vinyl windows
• Hard top gazebo
• Finished basement

Tags

• TREX DECK
• STAMPED CONCRETE PATIO
• HARD TOP GAZEBO
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEWER VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing (resale) property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Gazebo; Pie-shaped residential lot; Road frontage on a city street; Lot dimensions approximately 88 x 127

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Gas water heater (appliance listed)
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Sliding glass door(s); Separate/formal dining room; Kitchen island; Finished basement with sump pump; Recreation room in basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-520/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $292k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gananda Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #357 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $300k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $292,251 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
562 Crows Nest Ln	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$338,000	$217	70
3410 Dewberry Ln	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+7%)	19mo	$302,500	$194	67
573 Beaver Creek Rd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+7%)	8mo	$302,000	$194	65
441 Parkside Trl	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,556 (+7%)	1mo	$412,500	$265	64
3479 W Walworth Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,656 (+14%)	2mo	$380,000	$229	58
605 Smugglers Cv	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,467 (+1%)	23mo	$300,000	$204	56
3504 Scenic Way	0.45mi	3/3.5	1,578 (+8%)	4mo	$355,000	$225	54
365 Highfield Dr	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,476 (+1%)	23mo	$271,500	$184	47
3276 Spragbrook Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+9%)	13mo	$414,449	$260	44
447 Walworth Penfield Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,364 (-6%)	21mo	$250,000	$183	40
3258 Tanaberry Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+9%)	23mo	$455,000	$286	38
3145 W Walworth Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	20mo	$325,000	$240	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,100
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,013
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14502

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$716 /mo · $8,588/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,055

Max offer price $292,251

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
294 Mildahn Rd Walworth, NY	3.0	2.5	1440	$3,000	$2.08	19d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $299,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-28
   listed $299,900 Active
5. 2019-07-25
   soldstatus $182,500 Closed Sale or Rented 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath Colonial with all the major ticket items already done! New roof 2013, New furnace, AC and Hot Water Tank replaced in 2014! New laminate flooring throughout the first floor. Also new paint throughout! Large family room and eat in Kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to the large deck and fenced in yard. New stainless steel appliances included. Large finished dry basement! Driveway freshly sealed. Nothing left to do here but move in!

6. 2019-06-08
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath Colonial with all the major ticket items already done! New roof 2013, New furnace, AC and Hot Water Tank replaced in 2014! New laminate flooring throughout the first floor. Also new paint throughout! Large family room and eat in Kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to the large deck and fenced in yard. New stainless steel appliances included. Large finished dry basement! Driveway freshly sealed. Nothing left to do here but move in!

7. 2019-06-05
   listed $174,900 Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath Colonial with all the major ticket items already done! New roof 2013, New furnace, AC and Hot Water Tank replaced in 2014! New laminate flooring throughout the first floor. Also new paint throughout! Large family room and eat in Kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to the large deck and fenced in yard. New stainless steel appliances included. Large finished dry basement! Driveway freshly sealed. Nothing left to do here but move in!

8. 2016-12-29
   soldstatus $153,000
9. 2016-12-28
   soldstatus $153,000 Closed Sale or Rented 434-char remark

   Show marketing remark (434 chars)

   Pride of ownership throughout this wonderful 3 bedroom Colonial. Foyer entry, Formal dining room, spacious family room off of sunlit eat in kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to deck and fenced yard. Vaulted ceiling in master with walk in closet. Finished family/rec room in lower level. Roof was done 2013, Furnace, AC and hot water heater replaced in 2014. New Laminate flooring 2014. This move in ready home is a must see!

10. 2016-10-27
    status Pending Sale 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Pride of ownership throughout this wonderful 3 bedroom Colonial. Foyer entry, Formal dining room, spacious family room off of sunlit eat in kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to deck and fenced yard. Vaulted ceiling in master with walk in closet. Finished family/rec room in lower level. Roof was done 2013, Furnace, AC and hot water heater replaced in 2014. New Laminate flooring 2014. This move in ready home is a must see!

11. 2016-10-07
    listed $152,900 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Pride of ownership throughout this wonderful 3 bedroom Colonial. Foyer entry, Formal dining room, spacious family room off of sunlit eat in kitchen with sliding glass door that leads to deck and fenced yard. Vaulted ceiling in master with walk in closet. Finished family/rec room in lower level. Roof was done 2013, Furnace, AC and hot water heater replaced in 2014. New Laminate flooring 2014. This move in ready home is a must see!

12. 2009-06-16
    soldstatus $134,000
13. 2003-10-16
    soldstatus $122,000
14. 1996-11-04
    soldstatus $107,000
15. 1995-01-03
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,588 · $716/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,588 · $716/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$8,588
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,289
• After-tax cash flow: $769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gananda Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611740
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $69,406
• Composite: 44.17/100
• National rank: #2857
• State rank: #357 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gananda

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gananda, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.25%
• Current HPI: 242.5682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1203.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-07-25 Sold (MLS) $182,500 UNYREIS
• 2019-06-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2019-06-05 Listed $174,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-28 Sold (MLS) $153,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-10-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2016-10-07 Listed $152,900 UNYREIS
• 2009-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,588 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.