10210 Collins Ave #306

Bal Harbour, FL 33154

$420,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · Built 1952 · Condo · Pending · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,848/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$1,020
• HOA: −$411
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,018
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,356/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $370k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#217 in FL, #3,392 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 18 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 13900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $420k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,848/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.