426 W Cottonwood Ln #51

Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$71,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$372
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$510
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $288/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $19,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $71k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($288/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $71k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $491 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.