141 W 3rd St

Baird, TX 79504

$135,000A

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $1,715/mo
• Annual: $20,584/yr
• Cap rate: 21.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.45%
• DSCR: 3.42
• 1% rule: 2.59%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#195 in TX, #4,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baird ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baird El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 169 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Callahan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Callahan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.