141 W 3rd St · Baird, TX 79504

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1950 0.40 ac lot Est $183k · 26% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home set on a massive corner lot, featuring a classic metal roof that offers exceptional longevity, durability, and energy efficiency—all while adding timeless curb appeal. A covered front porch invites you in, leading to a gorgeous foyer highlighted by rich wood paneling (Texas-style wainscoting!), a warm design detail that’s also featured in one of the bathrooms. Inside, you’ll find four large bedrooms, two spacious bathrooms, and original hardwood floors. The entire home is truly a blank canvas—offering a clean starting point for full customization. The back entrance includes a generously sized mud room that provides excellent extra storag

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rich wood paneling
• Massive corner lot

Tags

• MASSIVE CORNER LOT
• CLASSIC METAL ROOF
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GORGEOUS FOYER
• RICH WOOD PANELING
• GENEROUSLY SIZED MUD ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#195 in TX, #4,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baird ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baird El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 169 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11 units permitted in Callahan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Callahan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.45%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,040
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Vine St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (+2%)	2mo	$15,000	$7	76
308 Race St	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,011 (-3%)	5mo	$195,000	$97	73
541 Chestnut St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (-7%)	6mo	$259,000	$134	68
771 E 6th St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,913 (-8%)	2mo	$300,000	$157	57
732 Race St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-5%)	14mo	$175,000	$88	56
540 Callowhill St	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,392 (+15%)	2mo	$164,000	$69	53
541 Cherry St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,127 (+2%)	24mo	$165,000	$78	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $162,753
• Equity at exit: $100,188

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.35×
• Total profit: $391,251
• Equity at exit: $196,650

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79504

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,426/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $1,715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 E 3rd St Baird, TX	3.0	3.0	2670	$3,500	$1.31	43d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-02-28
   price $135,000
4. 2025-12-22
   price $150,000
5. 2025-12-08
   listed $169,900 Active
6. 2007-06-04
   soldstatus
7. 2006-07-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,426 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,426 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,426
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $19,690
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,726
• After-tax cash flow: $15,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baird ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,351
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #9407
• State rank: #731 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Baird

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #4977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baird, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,995

Population outlook (Callahan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,664 people
• By 2030: 13,578 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 13,283 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 13,008 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 12,354 · -9.6%
• By 2100: 11,326 · -17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Callahan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.6) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -61.7pp · 2024: -77.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.6 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+69.8 2008: R+61.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.74%
• Current HPI: 161.9583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $169,900 NTREIS
• 2007-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,426 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.