115 Grayson Cir

Chapel Hill, TN 37034

$245,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$194
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-974/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-974/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in TN, #4,437 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chapel Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #139 of 952 statewide, top 16%, 546 students, 0% FRL); Delk-Henson Intermediate School (math 47% / reading 33%, grade F, #44 of 333 statewide, top 13%, 441 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Marshall County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 16 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Chapel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.