115 Grayson Cir · Chapel Hill, TN 37034

$245,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Townhouse public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 871 sqft lot $170/sqft · 7% below area Est $263k · 7% under $194/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Zero down USDA Funding * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31S within minutes of I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the 2nd floor; one with ensuite bath, and the other with access to full hallway bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher and range *

Key facts

• $194 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-974/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Chapel Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in TN, #4,437 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chapel Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #139 of 952 statewide, top 16%, 546 students, 0% FRL); Delk-Henson Intermediate School (math 47% / reading 33%, grade F, #44 of 333 statewide, top 13%, 441 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Marshall County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,060 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,450
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -7.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Grayson Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$256,500	$178	95
101 Grayson Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$259,900	$180	91
134 Grayson Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,404 (-2%)	2mo	$253,000	$180	91
132 Grayson Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$269,900	$187	84
152 Grayson Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$264,900	$184	82
138 Grayson Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$270,000	$188	81
127 Grayson Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$278,000	$193	80
136 Grayson Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,444 (+0%)	21mo	$275,000	$190	78
170 Grayson Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-5%)	16mo	$267,000	$196	74
901 Harper Lndg	0.64mi	3/3.5	1,480 (+3%)	8mo	$275,000	$186	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-44,826
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,507
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37034

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,633/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $230,656

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-12	+0% $-81	+5% $-151	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-163	+0% $-81	+5% $1	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $-19	base $-81	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 Olivia Cir Chapel Hill, TN	4.0	2.5	1837	$2,300	$1.25	25d	1	0.12mi
802 Taylor Dr Chapel Hill, TN	3.0	2.5	1089	$1,750	$1.61	45d	1	0.70mi
404 Harper Lndg Chapel Hill, TN	2.0	2.5	1034	$1,795	$1.74	19d	1	0.74mi
303 Harper Lndg Chapel Hill, TN	2.0	2.5	1034	$1,795	$1.74	16d	1	0.74mi
405 Harper Lndg Chapel Hill, TN	2.0	2.5	1034	$1,695	$1.64	25d	1	0.74mi
406 Harper Lndg Chapel Hill, TN	2.0	2.5	1034	$1,795	$1.74	19d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 589-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    price $249,900 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Zero down USDA Funding * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31S within minutes of I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the 2nd floor; one with ensuite bath, and the other with access to full hallway bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher and range *

16. 2026-01-30
    listed $254,900 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Zero down USDA Funding * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31S within minutes of I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the 2nd floor; one with ensuite bath, and the other with access to full hallway bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher and range *

17. 2025-12-13
    historical 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Significant price adjustment downward on 10/20/25 creates a great opportuity for purchase * Special Buyer Incentive; Seller shall contribute $5,000 to be used for buyer's closing cost * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31A within minutes of access to I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Freshly painted interior * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the second floor ; one with ensuite bathroom and one with easy access to hallway full bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or a spacious home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher, range, and disposal * Access to storage closet and outside back patio from family room * This townhome provides an excellent opportunity to purchase a wonderful new home at an excellent price *

18. 2025-10-20
    price $255,000 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Significant price adjustment downward on 10/20/25 creates a great opportuity for purchase * Special Buyer Incentive; Seller shall contribute $5,000 to be used for buyer's closing cost * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31A within minutes of access to I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Freshly painted interior * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the second floor ; one with ensuite bathroom and one with easy access to hallway full bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or a spacious home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher, range, and disposal * Access to storage closet and outside back patio from family room * This townhome provides an excellent opportunity to purchase a wonderful new home at an excellent price *

19. 2025-08-11
    price $266,900 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Significant price adjustment downward on 10/20/25 creates a great opportuity for purchase * Special Buyer Incentive; Seller shall contribute $5,000 to be used for buyer's closing cost * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31A within minutes of access to I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Freshly painted interior * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the second floor ; one with ensuite bathroom and one with easy access to hallway full bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or a spacious home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher, range, and disposal * Access to storage closet and outside back patio from family room * This townhome provides an excellent opportunity to purchase a wonderful new home at an excellent price *

20. 2025-06-13
    listed $269,900 Active 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    Significant price adjustment downward on 10/20/25 creates a great opportuity for purchase * Special Buyer Incentive; Seller shall contribute $5,000 to be used for buyer's closing cost * Affordable and quiet living in idyllic Chapel Hill community * Easy access onto HGWY 31A within minutes of access to I840 providing access west to Franklin or east to Murfreesboro * Freshly painted interior * Great floorplan provides for 2 large bedrooms on the second floor ; one with ensuite bathroom and one with easy access to hallway full bath * Flex room on main floor with closet could easily be a 3rd bedroom if needed or a spacious home office * Family room opens to kitchen with dishwasher, range, and disposal * Access to storage closet and outside back patio from family room * This townhome provides an excellent opportunity to purchase a wonderful new home at an excellent price *

21. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus $246,035 Closed
22. 2023-04-01
    status Pending
23. 2023-03-20
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-03-16
    status Active
25. 2023-03-16
    historical
26. 2023-03-03
    price $246,035
27. 2023-03-03
    price $239,990
28. 2023-02-25
    status Active
29. 2023-02-16
    historical
30. 2023-02-03
    price $246,035
31. 2023-01-25
    listed $244,990 Active
32. 2022-12-19
    historical
33. 2022-12-16
    price $252,990
34. 2022-12-03
    status Active
35. 2022-12-02
    historical
36. 2022-11-26
    status Active
37. 2022-11-26
    historical
38. 2022-11-11
    price $258,035
39. 2022-11-10
    status Active
40. 2022-11-10
    historical
41. 2022-10-16
    status Active
42. 2022-10-16
    historical
43. 2022-10-07
    price $264,990
44. 2022-09-27
    listed $268,035 Active
45. 2022-08-12
    historical
46. 2022-08-05
    price $268,035
47. 2022-08-05
    price $269,035
48. 2022-08-05
    status Active
49. 2022-08-05
    historical
50. 2022-07-28
    status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,633 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,633
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern finishes. It's move-in ready with potential for minor exterior enhancements to boost its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 4702670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,058
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7426
• State rank: #58 of 139 in TN

Livability — Chapel Hill

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chapel Hill, TN
• City population: 8,596
• Population (ZIP): 8,596

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,222 people
• By 2030: 33,867 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 34,743 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 34,954 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 34,652 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 31,862 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.6) · D 21.2% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -56.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.6 2020: R+50.0 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.87%
• Current HPI: 394.2776
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $249,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $254,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $255,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $266,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Listed $269,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Sold (MLS) $246,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-01 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-16 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-03 Price Changed $246,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-03 Price Changed $239,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-25 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-03 Price Changed $246,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-25 Listed $244,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-19 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-16 Price Changed $252,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-03 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-26 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-26 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-11 Price Changed $258,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-10 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-10 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-16 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-16 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $264,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-27 Listed $268,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $268,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $269,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-28 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-23 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-14 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-10 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-07 Price Changed $268,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-02 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-02 Price Changed $268,034 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-20 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-18 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-10 Listed $268,035 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,633 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.