2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,900 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Townhouse
· Active
· 64 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,011/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$492
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$422
Net cashflow
$-450/mo
Annual
$-5,402/yr
Cap rate
4.46%
Cash-on-cash
-6.54%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$82,597
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (22.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (31.8% below list).
It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $201k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-F80QKDB5FNVD8W
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29