21191 Berg Rd

Southfield, MI 48033

$139,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Active · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $134/mo
• Annual: $1,612/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southfield Public School District (urban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #392 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.2% in Southfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.