21191 Berg Rd · Southfield, MI 48033

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1939 1.20 ac lot $109/sqft · 8% below area Est $151k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing country like setting next to much more expensive homes! Seller is willing to finish interior to the new buyers liking upon closing. The seller is willing to finish the interior for the new buyers at an extra cost. There is room for expansion and a garage. There is 1.2 acres of privacy.

Key facts

• 1.2 acres of privacy
• Room for expansion
• 1.2 acre lot

Tags

• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• 1.2 ACRES OF PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Southfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southfield Public School District (urban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #392 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,528
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -1.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20370 Cherokee St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,208 (-5%)	1mo	$117,000	$97	74
22893 Golfview Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+4%)	13mo	$180,000	$136	64
20348 Berg Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,136 (-11%)	6mo	$135,000	$119	59
21203 Berg Rd	0.04mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,408 (+10%)	19mo	$249,000	$177	58
23625 Millard St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+10%)	21mo	$135,000	$96	51
22485 Fairway Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (+10%)	11mo	$190,000	$136	39
22212 Hessel Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,093 (-14%)	14mo	$120,000	$110	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-18,512
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-22,642
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48033

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,052/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47129 Wedgewood Southfield, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	43d	1	0.54mi
20555 Lahser Rd Detroit, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$975	$1.32	43d	2	0.58mi
22419 Fairway Dr Southfield, MI	3.0	1.0	1262	$1,850	$1.47	24d	1	0.62mi
19800 Berg Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	16d	1	0.73mi
22649 Frisbee St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	43d	1	0.77mi
22238 Pembroke Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.77mi
19928 Houghton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	880	$1,495	$1.70	10d	1	0.78mi
19501 Redfern St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	1816	$1,350	$0.74	43d	1	0.88mi
23275 Riverside Dr Southfield, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	2088	$2,362	$1.13	1d	30	0.95mi
20083 Salem St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	969	$1,050	$1.08	4d	1	0.98mi
20083 Salem St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	969	$1,050	$1.08	10d	1	0.98mi
20410 Five Points St Redford, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	4d	1	0.99mi
21422 Pembroke Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,695	$1.70	16d	1	1.03mi
23404 Plum Hollow St Southfield, MI	3.0	1.5	1050	$2,000	$1.90	24d	1	1.11mi
25400 Basin St Southfield, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	4d	11	1.14mi
22570 Seven Mile W Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	890	$875	$0.98	43d	1	1.17mi
19810 Blackstone St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1216	$1,395	$1.15	43d	1	1.18mi
25740 Shiawassee St Southfield, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,253	$1.47	43d	10	1.22mi
20079 Patton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	4d	1	1.33mi
21642 Hidden Rivers Dr S #27 Southfield, MI	3.0	2.5	1354	$2,100	$1.55	43d	1	1.42mi
21642 Hidden Rivers Dr N Southfield, MI	3.0	2.5	1754	$1,975	$1.13	2d	1	1.43mi
20284 Melrose St Southfield, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	43d	1	1.43mi
21727 Hidden Rivers Dr N Southfield, MI	4.0	3.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	1d	1	1.44mi
19781 Fielding St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,294	$1.29	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $139,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 193 DOM
16. 2025-11-19
    listed $149,000 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Amazing country like setting next to much more expensive homes! Seller is willing to finish interior to the new buyers liking upon closing. The seller is willing to finish the interior for the new buyers at an extra cost. There is room for expansion and a garage. There is 1.2 acres of privacy.

17. 2025-11-19
    listed $149,000 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Amazing country like setting next to much more expensive homes! Seller is willing to finish interior to the new buyers liking upon closing. The seller is willing to finish the interior for the new buyers at an extra cost. There is room for expansion and a garage. There is 1.2 acres of privacy.

18. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold
19. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed
20. 2022-05-09
    status Pending
21. 2022-05-09
    status Pending
22. 2022-05-07
    listed $85,000 Active
23. 2022-05-07
    listed $85,000 Active
24. 2022-05-06
    historical $85,000
25. 2022-05-06
    historical $85,000
26. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus $27,100 Sold
27. 2016-02-10
    soldstatus $27,100
28. 2016-01-22
    status Pending
29. 2016-01-22
    historical
30. 2016-01-07
    listed $29,900 Active
31. 2016-01-07
    listed $29,900
32. 1997-07-18
    soldstatus $62,000
33. 1997-07-18
    soldstatus $30,000
34. 1997-06-30
    soldstatus $62,000
35. 1997-05-15
    listed $65,000
36. 1997-05-14
    historical
37. 1997-03-14
    listed $66,900
38. 1997-03-14
    historical
39. 1996-12-14
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,052 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,052 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$4,052
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$123
• After-tax cash flow: $1,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southfield Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2632310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,400
• Composite: 23.77/100
• National rank: #7814
• State rank: #392 of 540 in MI

Livability — Southfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #6175

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southfield, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 54,914
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 17,277
• Household income: $61,016
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.44%
• Current HPI: 187.5011
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.96%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+113.2% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $149,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-19 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (MLS) $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-05-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-05-07 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-07 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-05-06 Coming Soon $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-06 Coming Soon $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-02-10 Sold (MLS) $27,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-02-10 Sold (MLS) $27,100 REALCOMP
• 2016-01-22 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-01-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-01-07 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-01-07 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-30 Sold (MLS) $62,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-05-15 Listed $65,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-05-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1997-03-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1997-03-14 Listed $66,900 REALCOMP
• 1996-12-14 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,052 · -17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.