The Ainsley Plan

Spring Hill, KS 66083

$375,790F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,549
• Tax + insurance: −$810
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-1,175/mo
• Annual: $-14,104/yr
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.36%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $136,119

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $376k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($331k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#93 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Hill (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #11 of 169 in KS (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #131 of 684 statewide, top 23%, 303 students, 11% FRL); Spring Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #89 of 219 statewide, top 40%, 471 students, 24% FRL); Spring Hill High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #26 of 327 statewide, top 8%, 983 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.