The Ainsley Plan · Spring Hill, KS 66083

$375,790

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ainsley is a two-story home offering 1,640 square feet with three bedrooms and two and a half baths. It's a solid option for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a layout that makes good use of space. A 2-car garage is standard, with a 3-car option available depending on the lot. On the main floor, the kitchen, dining, and living areas connect in a way that works for both everyday routines and having people over. The kitchen includes a center island, pantry, and plenty of cabinet space. A nearby patio gives you an easy extension of the living space outside. A powder bath and drop zone help keep things practical. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• LAUNDRY ROOM UPSTAIRS

🏗️ New construction. The $375,790 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $464,992.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $376k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#93 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Hill (rural): math 40% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #11 of 169 in KS (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #131 of 684 statewide, top 23%, 303 students, 11% FRL); Spring Hill Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #89 of 219 statewide, top 40%, 471 students, 24% FRL); Spring Hill High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #26 of 327 statewide, top 8%, 983 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 638 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,969 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (1,066 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($331k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,096 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.95%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $464,992
• List price: $375,790
• Delta: -19.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18370 W 205th St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-12%)	1mo	$449,950	$312	79
19006 Millview St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+5%)	1mo	$465,000	$270	76
20523 Newcastle St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-0%)	3mo	$375,493	$230	75
20566 Newcastle St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	2mo	$409,946	$256	73
19002 Millview St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-9%)	3mo	$415,000	$277	67
18615 W 193rd St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,779 (+8%)	3mo	$589,950	$332	66
19715 W 196th St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-4%)	2mo	$365,900	$233	62
19623 W 195th Pl	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-3%)	0mo	$390,000	$246	60
20320 W 195th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-12%)	0mo	$343,490	$238	59
17980 W 191st St	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,718 (+5%)	1mo	$350,000	$204	57
20518 Newcastle St	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+11%)	1mo	$388,802	$213	52
19626 W 195th Pl	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,394 (-15%)	0mo	$382,642	$274	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-144,074
• Equity at exit: $69,332

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-213,839
• Equity at exit: $40,204

Cash invested: $130,198 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 73 active · 38 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $425,834 ($256/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 66083

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,975/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,068

Max offer price $308,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-758	-5% $-919	+0% $-1,080	+5% $-1,240	+10% $-1,401
Rent	-10% $-1,293	-5% $-1,186	+0% $-1,080	+5% $-973	+10% $-866
Rate	-1.0pp $-846	-0.5pp $-961	base $-1,080	+0.5pp $-1,200	+1.0pp $-1,323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,248
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20313 W 195th St Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,100	$1.73	7d	1	0.44mi
19427 Lincoln St Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,195	$1.74	43d	1	0.68mi
20368 W 194th Ter Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,295	$2.19	164d	1	0.88mi
19939 Cornice St Spring Hill, KS	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,595	$1.68	0d	1	0.91mi
19604 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,800	$1.39	7d	1	0.92mi
19604 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,800	$1.39	9d	1	0.92mi
19615 199th Ter Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$2,995	$1.48	10d	1	0.94mi
19601 200th St Spring Hill, KS	4.0	3.5	2019	$3,045	$1.51	10d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $375,790Inventory type: Plan

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Ainsley)
• Exterior features: Located at 18355 W 205th St, Spring Hill, KS 66083Living area approximately 1,640

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home: The Ainsley

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $375,790 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $375,790 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $375,790 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $375,790 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $375,790 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $375,790 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $375,790 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $375,790 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $375,790 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $375,790 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $375,790 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $375,790 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $375,790 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $375,790 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $375,790 Active 169 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $375,790 Active 168 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $375,790 Active 167 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $375,790 Active 166 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $375,790 Active 165 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $375,790 Active 164 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $375,790 Active 163 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $375,790 Active 162 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $375,790 Active 161 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $375,790 Active 160 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $375,790 Active 159 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $375,790 Active 158 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $375,790 Active 157 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $375,790 Active 156 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $375,790 Active 155 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $375,790 Active 154 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $375,790 Active 153 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $375,790 Active 152 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $375,790 Active 151 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $375,790 Active 150 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $375,790 Active 149 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $375,790 Active 148 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $375,790 Active 147 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $375,790 Active 146 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $375,790 Active 145 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $375,790 Active 144 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $375,790 Active 143 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $375,790 Active 142 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $375,790 Active 140 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $375,790 Active 139 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $375,790 Active 138 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $375,790 Active 137 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $375,790 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $375,790 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $375,790 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $375,790 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$6,975
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$21,648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a solid layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for first-time buyers or investors looking to rent.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Flooring upgrades — Upgrading flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can attract tenants. ↑
• Rental Landscaping maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and improve curb appeal. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wolf Creek Elementary School C- KS #131/684 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Spring Hill Middle School F KS #89/219 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Spring Hill High School F KS #26/327 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Hill
• NCES district ID: 2011850
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,172
• Composite: 40.26/100
• National rank: #3767
• State rank: #11 of 169 in KS

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #5370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, KS
• County: Johnson County · 663,396 people
• City population: 13,011
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 13,011
• Household income: $116,791
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 663,396 people
• By 2030: 702,585 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 775,386 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 841,772 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 994,137 · +49.9%
• By 2100: 1,073,036 · +61.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 53.4% · R 44.9% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.0pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+2.7 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+9.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 265.6494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $375,790Inventory type: Plan

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (The Ainsley)
• Exterior features: Located at 18355 W 205th St, Spring Hill, KS 66083Living area approximately 1,640

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home: The Ainsley