5395 Carolina Ave

Naples Manor, FL 34113

$580,000D+

15 bd · 12.0 ba · 2,686 sqft · Built 1969 · Other · Active · 282 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax + insurance: −$1,029
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $-168/mo
• Annual: $-2,014/yr
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $162,400

Investor read

• This is a 15-bed/12.0-bath other listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $550k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $494k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($510k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $494k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#615 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $580k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,940/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?